World Bank vice president and chief economist Justin Yifu Lin
Now, the World Bank predicts China's economic growth rate in 2009 was 7.5%, I predict should also be between 7% to 8%, may be close to 8%, but certainly not less than 7%. No matter how, China is still relatively compared with the world's fastest.
one aspect, as a developing country, we have a large industrial upgrading space, infrastructure, social security system, there is considerable investment in terms of space, coupled with economic growth so fast, people accumulate too much, government finances are relatively well-off, so the mobilization of government forces, with business, civil society's strength to a larger space to expand domestic demand. < br> It can be said, from the 19th century, 30 years since the Great Depression, the world has run into a global economic recession, if not handled well is likely to become another Great Depression. these circumstances, the solution is not a single country capacity can be resolved, in fact, a global effort to.
for global efforts, we know that monetary policy is relatively small space, like the United States, Japan, interest rates have been zero interest rate, to zero interest rates in Europe soon. This Under such situation, the current consensus is that there must be a coordinated fiscal stimulus.
It can be said that a Keynesian, but the coordination of fiscal stimulus is not able to solve the problem, really has to start up the world economy, or a unknown. because other countries in terms of fiscal stimulus used in the past, often the government to spend more in the future be more tax, people will be expected to pay higher taxes, and now they must save. So the Government's fiscal stimulus and can not really to start the demand. This is called the Ricardian equivalence theory in economics, this requires a new thinking to break.
was the result of Ricardian equivalence, the reason is government investment, government stimulus, and did not create a new growth, then government revenue will not increase in the future; However, if the Government's fiscal stimulus can be used in a number of projects above, to eliminate the bottleneck of growth, and then had to wait until this round of economic crisis, the economy started to recover the later, economic growth can increase the average growth rate than in the past, then the Government's fiscal stimulus, it creates more growth in the future, the future a greater revenue, it will not appear Ricardian equivalence problem.
how to achieve it? growth depends on where the bottlenecks? which side of the investment can achieve this effect? I think we not only have a positive fiscal stimulus, but also to find the new point where global growth.
my personal view, the global growth more in developing countries, including the moderately developed countries such as China, as well as in Africa or South Asia, those countries with low incomes. In order to start the world economy, Developed countries have the responsibility to some of the money used to support developing countries, fiscal stimulus, it can solve two problems simultaneously.
experience to break the Ricardian equivalence, in fact, I summed up the experience of 1998-2002 in China come The .1998-2002 of the Asian financial crisis hit, when China's active fiscal policy, investments in infrastructure above, highways, ports, power grids, the results of how to?
from 1978 to 2002, our average the annual economic growth rate of 9.6% for twenty three or four years. At that time the prevailing view of economists at home and abroad is no longer possible to continue to grow at a rate of 9% down. But now we see 2003-2008, We not only did not decline in the average growth rate, and is 11%, how will turn from the 9.6% average growth rate of 11% of what?
is our most important bottleneck to growth lifted, the active front for some time fiscal policy to solve the bottleneck of growth. The results we have in the last century 90's, the Government's fiscal deficit, public debt, accounting for the proportion of our GDP is 30%. By 2007, reduce by 20%, why can this ? is because some time ago, these fiscal stimulus, which is used to solve the bottleneck of our growth, and growth rate increases, government revenue increases, increased tax revenue, not only in the proactive fiscal policy to repay the investment at that time, even There are more than.
I think if the Chinese experience can be extended to the world, how to break the Ricardian equivalence may be, is to find a new growth point.
(interview material order, CCTV2 Special for)
No comments:
Post a Comment